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Worldwide Diabetes Will
Double By 2030
posted August 17, 2004
U.S. will have over 30 million,but
the most significant increases are expected in the Middle East, sub-Saharan
Africa and India.
The number of people with diabetes throughout the world is expected to double by
2030, according to a new study led by the World Health Organization and carried
out in cooperation with researchers from universities in Scotland, Denmark and
The researchers, led by Sara Wild, PhD, from the University of Edinburgh,
predicted that the number of people with diabetes worldwide will continue to
increase at record levels through 2030. Wild and her colleagues said the
greatest relative increase in diabetes prevalence is expected in the Middle
Eastern, sub-Saharan Africa and India. The researchers also said that the United
States will experience a far more rapid increase in diabetes cases than
Wild and her colleagues arrived at these predictions by analyzing data on
diabetes prevalence in countries throughout the world. The researchers said the
worldwide prevalence of diabetes for all age groups was estimated to be 2.8% in
2000. But the researchers predict this number will increase to 4.4% by 2030.
They also predicted that the total number of people with diabetes will rise to
366 million in 2030, up from 171 million in 2000.
The three countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes in 2000 were India,
China and the United States. The researchers said these countries are expected
to continue to have the highest prevalence in 2030.
But this new study projects an even higher increase for the United States than a
2001 study by the CDC had previously predicted. That study projected the number
of Americans with diagnosed diabetes would reach 29 million by 2050; but this
new WHO study estimates that there will be 30.3 million Americans with diabetes
by as early as 2030.
Wild and her colleagues also predicted that Egypt and the Philippines will be
among the top 10 countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes by 2030. But
they said Italy and Russia are expected to drop from this list.
The researchers said their findings are particularly concerning because as
diabetes is expected to increase in developing countries over the next three
decades, mortality from communicable disease and infant and maternal mortality
will decrease. Wild and her colleagues said this change will lead to higher
proportions of deaths from cardiovascular disease, as well as a great incidence
of other diabetes-related complications, which will be particularly marked in
developing countries. “The human and economic costs of this epidemic are
enormous,” Wild and her colleagues noted. “A concerted, global initiative is
required to address the diabetes epidemic.”
Source: Diabetes In Control.com: Wild S. et al. Global prevalence
of diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030.
Diabetes Care. 2004;27:1047-1053.
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